Brazil's Election Is Going Down To The Wire — And Washington Is Right In The Middle Of It

Brazil votes on Sunday, and this one is a lot bigger than who runs the country for the next four years. Analysts say the result could ripple across the whole region.

The two frontrunners are Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old leftist president chasing a fourth non-consecutive term, and Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old far-right senator and the son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. The Guardian describes the race as neck-and-neck.

Who Is Running

Jair Bolsonaro was convicted in September 2025 of attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. He is serving a 27-year sentence, according to The Guardian, and is under house arrest. His son is running in his place.

Flávio Bolsonaro has vowed to pardon his father if he wins and has announced plans to appoint five firmly conservative supreme court judges, the same report says.

What The Polls Say

Election-eve polling shows Lula with a slim lead. The Datafolha pollster expects Lula to take about 45% of the vote and Bolsonaro about 40%, per The Guardian.

A candidate needs 50% plus one vote to win outright. If nobody gets there, the top two go to a runoff on 25 October, which is the likely outcome. Lula has claimed he could still pull off a first-round win.

Why The US Is Part Of The Story

This race is about Washington as much as Brasília. BBC News reports that Washington has backed closer ties with Brazil's right wing, while Lula has accused Bolsonaro's camp of encouraging foreign interference. The BBC says the election has raised questions about US influence, trade tariffs, organised crime and Brazil's sovereignty.

The Guardian reports that Lula and Democratic members of the US Congress have accused Washington of trying to interfere in Bolsonaro's favour. At a rally in Rio, Lula said, in what the paper calls an indirect reference to those claims, that "no gringo is going to lay a finger on Brazil's things."

Trump recently said that rightwing candidates he has endorsed have won all seven presidential elections held in Latin America since his second term began, according to the Guardian. Analysts quoted there see Brazil as perhaps the last country in the region still able to say "no" to him. Only six Latin American countries now have leftwing governments.

The two candidates differ sharply on key issues:

• Security: Bolsonaro has pledged to join the US-led Shield of the Americas anti-cartel coalition and take an "iron fist" approach to crime. Lula has raised sovereignty concerns about it.
• Minerals: Washington asked for privileged access to Brazil's rare earths and critical minerals in exchange for not applying tariffs. Lula rejected that, while Bolsonaro has offered the resources to help the US reduce its dependence on China, per the Guardian.

The Campaign Closes With A Bang

On Friday, Lula led what his team called a "victory march" through central Rio, between two sites tied to Brazil's fight against the 1964-1985 military dictatorship. He told supporters the choice was "either we consolidate democracy, or we will lose it."

Lula has also cast the vote in stark terms, telling a podcast: "It's either me, or it's barbarism." Bolsonaro, in an online broadcast, said it was "the end of the Worker's party era."

Both sides have vulnerabilities. The Guardian notes that unemployment, poverty and inflation have fallen and average incomes have risen, but household debt has also climbed, which many link to online betting. Lula's campaign has been hit by corruption allegations, still under investigation, involving his son and a former aide. Flávio Bolsonaro faces corruption allegations too, some shelved and others still under investigation.

What Happens Next

Results are expected Sunday evening local time. If there is no outright winner, the runoff on 25 October will decide it. Either way, the outcome will be read far beyond Brazil, as a verdict on how much influence Washington can wield over Latin America's biggest country.

If Brazil's election is such a big deal for the rest of the world, do you think foreign governments should stay out of other countries' votes entirely? Tell us in the comments.

Sources: The Guardian: Brazil's neck-and-neck election | The Guardian: Lula says only he can stop fascism | BBC News: Why has Brazil accused the US of election interference?