Brazil's Election Just Took A Shock Turn: Flávio Bolsonaro Beat Lula In Round One — Here's What Happens Next

Brazil's presidential election has a clear frontrunner, and it isn't the man currently in the job.

Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of jailed ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, won the first round on Sunday, beating incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Neither man cleared 50%, so the two will face off in a runoff on 25 October.

The Numbers

According to The Guardian, Flávio took 56.1 million votes (47.03%) to Lula's 53.8 million (45.16%).

That was a surprise. BBC News reports that all the polls had the two candidates statistically tied going in.

Lula is 80 and has been president before. Flávio is a senator who had never run for the presidency until now.

Why This Is Such A Big Deal

Brazil is Latin America's biggest democracy and economy, so the result matters well beyond its borders. Both outlets frame it as part of a wider swing to the right across the region.

There's also a historical problem for Lula. The Guardian and the BBC both note that since democracy returned in 1985, no candidate who finished second in the first round has gone on to win the runoff.

Political scientist Miguel Lago told the Guardian: "Miracles are possible in politics. But I don't see that happening."

Why Did Lula Struggle?

The BBC points to a battle of rejection rather than popularity. A Datafolha poll before the vote found both men had the same rejection rate: 45%.

Lula's numbers looked tougher on government approval. One poll had 49% disapproving of his government and 48% approving. The BBC says no Brazilian president has ever sought re-election with such high disapproval.

That's despite what the BBC describes as record-low official unemployment, at around 5.3%, and the highest average income on record.

The BBC also says Flávio leaned on crime concerns in a country with more than 40,000 homicides a year. He campaigned hard against the Supreme Court as well, which sentenced his father to 27 years for plotting a coup.

A Family Affair

It wasn't only the presidential race. The Guardian reports that four Bolsonaro relatives won seats in congress:

• Michelle Bolsonaro, the ex-president's wife, won a Senate seat
• Carlos Bolsonaro, his second son, also won a Senate seat
• Jair Renan Bolsonaro, his youngest son, moved up to the lower house
• Renato Bolsonaro, his brother, also won a lower-house seat

The Bolsonaros' Liberal Party jumped from 15 to 28 Senate seats, according to the BBC. The Guardian says that, together with other hard-right parties, that adds up to 43 of 81, which would be an upper-house majority.

The Guardian notes that control of the Senate could let allies pursue an amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest.

The International Reaction

US President Donald Trump, a longtime ally of the family, called it "a big victory" and predicted a "very close" runoff, the Guardian reports. Argentina's Javier Milei and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu also cheered the result on X.

Trump has been accused of trying to sway the vote in Bolsonaro's favour, according to the Guardian. Brazil's attorney general said last week that meddling "cannot be tolerated".

What Happens Next

Lula says he will launch "a new campaign" and highlight the difference between the two candidates' proposals. He also promised to focus on Flávio's "dark past", which includes reported ties to figures in Rio's underworld and corruption allegations. The Guardian notes Flávio has denied these.

The Guardian reports that more than 5.5 million votes went to other right-wing candidates, which could help Flávio. One of them, Renan Santos, said he would back neither man. Romeu Zema said he will vote against Lula's party, and Ronaldo Caiado hasn't said what he'll do.

Lula's best hope, analysts say, is persuading some of the record 33 million Brazilians who didn't vote to turn out in round two.

The runoff is on 25 October.

What do you think: can Lula pull off something no one has managed since 1985, or is this race already decided? Tell us below.

Sources: The Guardian: Flávio Bolsonaro poised to win Brazilian presidency | The Guardian: Flávio's surprise first-round win highlights rise of Brazil's House of Bolsonaro | BBC News: Flávio Bolsonaro rides right-wing wave to win first round of Brazil election