Brazil's Election Is Heading To A Run-Off On 25 October After Flávio Bolsonaro Beat Lula In Round One — Here's What Happens Next

Brazil's presidential election is going to a second round. Far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Lula in Sunday's first round, but not by enough to win outright.

The run-off is set for 25 October, according to Sky News.

The Numbers

With 99.9% of votes counted, The Guardian reports that Bolsonaro, 45, took 47% of the vote against 45.1% for Lula, 80. In raw votes, that is 56.1 million to 53.8 million.

Neither cleared the 50% mark needed to avoid a run-off. Brazil's president is directly elected, with no electoral college, so the top two now go head to head three weeks later.

Polls had not predicted the scale of the right's showing, per the Guardian. Lula himself called the result "unexpected" and admitted he had been convinced he would win in the first round.

Why It Matters

This is a big deal beyond Brazil. The country is Latin America's largest democracy, and the result could shift the direction of the whole region.

Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who governed from 2019 to 2022. The Guardian reports that Jair is now serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a failed coup after refusing to accept his defeat to Lula in the last election. Flávio hopes that winning the presidency will allow him to free his father.

It was also a strong night for the right further down the ballot, according to the Guardian:

• Of the 54 Senate seats up for election, 34 went to candidates from the right or far right.
• Carlos Bolsonaro and Michelle Bolsonaro both won Senate seats.
• Jair Renan Bolsonaro was elected to the lower house.
• Tarcísio de Freitas was re-elected governor of São Paulo.

The Senate matters because senators are the only lawmakers who can impeach Supreme Court justices. The Guardian says that has been a demand of Bolsonaro supporters since the court jailed the former president.

What Each Side Is Saying

Flávio Bolsonaro told supporters in Brasília the result marked "the end of an era" for Lula's Workers' party, per the Guardian.

Lula, speaking in São Paulo, called the night "a lesson in Brazilian democracy" and said a new campaign would start immediately. He argued voters would see more clearly what he called Bolsonaro's "dark past" now that the race is down to two candidates.

Donald Trump has also been an issue in the campaign. The Guardian reports that Lula accused the US president of trying to swing the vote towards Bolsonaro in order to "colonise" Brazil, while Bolsonaro has promised a closer relationship with Trump. The BBC has also covered Brazil's accusation of US election interference.

What Happens Next

Bolsonaro goes into the second round as the strong favourite, according to the Guardian. He is likely to pick up votes from the other right-wing candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado (2.1%) and Renan Santos (2.2%).

Lula's team is betting that a two-person race will sharpen the contrast between the candidates. Voters decide on 25 October.

Who's Voting, And Why

The Guardian says public frustration over the cost of living and urban violence helped drive the mood in the final days. One Bolsonaro voter told the paper he voted "more to get Lula out than for Flávio himself." On the other side, supporters who had gathered in Rio hoping to celebrate watched the mood turn as Bolsonaro's lead held through the night.

What do you make of the result, and do you think Lula can close the gap before 25 October? Tell us in the comments.

Sources: The Guardian | Sky News | BBC News